Wednesday 28 October, 2020

St Lucia could have almost 2,000 coronavirus cases by April 14 - PM

Prime Minister Allen Chastanet posted projections to his official Facebook page on how many cases of the coronavirus St Lucia could have by April 14, with the worst-case scenario reaching almost 2,000.

"Based on the latest confirmed 5 cases of COVID-19 community spread, approximately 100 persons have had to be put into quarantine based on contact tracing. These are some of the projections which have resulted in our immediate 24-hour shutdown.

"Assuming that a person with COVID-19 can transmit to 2-3 persons based on contact with 10 – 20 persons, as at April 14th, 2020 Saint Lucia could have 132 confirmed cases based on baseline trends:

  • 122 confirmed cases if the cases were doubled every 7 days
  • 225 confirmed cases if it doubled every 4 days
  • 1989 confirmed cases if it doubled every 2 days

"Of course, we are hoping and praying that these figures do not become reality, however, this alone will not be enough.

"We must work harder and make tough decisions in the best interest of our health system and the citizens of this country.

"Given that this is the first day of the shutdown coupled with the vast needs of citizens, we expect there to be some glitches with our response. Please be reassured that we are working aggressively and making all available resources accessible to bring relief to those who need it."

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